Critical Threats Project analyst Maher Farrukh writes that Yemen’s al Houthi movement, which receives Iranian support, has moved increasingly into Tehran’s orbit and threatened the UAE with possible new ballistic missile capabilities. He adds that though recent reporting indicated strains in the al Houthi partnership with former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the alliance will almost certainly survive as a united front against the internationally recognized Yemeni government and the Saudi-led coalition. Further, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which no longer directly controls terrain in Yemen, is operating from its old playbook and targeting the local leaders who helped combat it—a move that helped set the conditions for AQAP’s return after 2012.
AEI’s Critical Threats Project team tracks developments related to Yemen closely. Here are some of the highlights of the team’s analysis since the start of the current conflict:
- How the US Should Re-Engage in Yemen
- A New Model for Defeating al Qaeda in Yemen
- Losing Wars: Terrorism and Disease in Yemen
- Warning Update: Iran’s Hybrid Warfare in Yemen
- Signaling Saudi Arabia: Iranian Support to Yemen’s al Houthis
- Al Qaeda’s Base in Yemen
- AQAP Post-Arab Spring and the Islamic State (from How al-Qaeda Survived Drones, Uprisings, and the Islamic State, Washington Institute)
- Province Ties to the Islamic State Core: Islamic State in Yemen (from Beyond Syria and Iraq: Examining Islamic State Provinces, Washington Institute)
- Ramadan Bombings in Yemen: Part of ISIS’s Global Strategy?
Below are the top three takeaways from the week:
- Hamza bin Laden, the son of Osama bin Laden, is emerging as a prominent senior al Qaeda leader. Bin Laden called for Muslims to support the Syrian jihad in a message marking the 16th anniversary of the September 11 attacks. Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri called for the global Salafi-jihadi movement to unite under al Qaeda’s leadership in his September 11 message. Zawahiri did not discuss Syria. Al Qaeda leadership is grooming Hamza bin Laden as a future leader to preserve the group’s role as a leader of the Salafi-jihadi movement. [Read Katherine Zimmerman’s landmark report: “America’s Real Enemy: The Salafi-Jihadi Movement.”]
- Civil unrest is a threat to the Tunisian government. Protests erupted in Tunis against the passage of an amnesty law protecting officials accused of corruption during former President Zine al Abidine Ben Ali’s regime. The backlash accompanies a push by Prime Minister Yousef Chahed to implement austerity measures required by an IMF economic reform package. The desynchronization of political and economic reform increases the risk of uprising as the population becomes increasingly dissatisfied with the government’s failure to uphold the promise of the 2011 Jasmine Revolution. [Read Emily Estelle’s “Warning Update: Escalating Protests Threaten Instability in Tunisia.”]
- Al Houthi movement leader Abdul Malik al Houthi threatened to attack the UAE homeland for the first time. The al Houthi-Saleh bloc likely lacks the capability to target Abu Dhabi at this time, however. The al Houthi-Saleh bloc’s furthest demonstrated ballistic missile range is over 900 kilometers. Al Houthi-Saleh forces would need to launch a missile roughly 1300 kilometers in order to reach Abu Dhabi. It is plausible that al Houthi-Saleh forces will develop the capability to strike the UAE homeland with a ballistic missile in the near-term. Iran continues to facilitate the development of the al Houthi-Saleh bloc’s sophisticated weaponry, such as ballistic missiles, according to U.S. Vice Admiral and 5th Fleet Commander Kevin M. Donegan. [Read Katherine Zimmerman’s recommendations for reducing Iranian influence in Yemen.]