- The death of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh will benefit Iran and al Qaeda in Yemen. The Gulf States drew Saleh away from his partnership with the al Houthi movement in an attempt to advance a resolution to the civil war. The plan failed, and the al Houthi movement killed Saleh and several of his close supporters. The now-isolated al Houthi movement will seek more support from Tehran, which it will provide. The instability generated by Saleh’s death will reverberate beyond northern Yemen, allowing al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula an opportunity to expand. [Read Katherine Zimmerman and Maher Farrukh’s assessment of the events leading up to Saleh’s death and its consequences for Yemen.]
- Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri rejected Jabhat al Nusra’s split from al Qaeda in Syria as a violation of its bayat pledge and is attempting to bring the group back under al Qaeda’s leadership. Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the successor of Jabhat al Nusra, arrested pro-al Qaeda HTS officials, causing a public rift within the group. Zawahiri’s public statement indicates that private mediation efforts have failed to unite opposition groups under al Qaeda.
- The stage is set for a political and legitimacy crisis in Libya when the term of the UN-backed unity government officially expires on December 17. The U.S. policies to counter Salafi-jihadi groups and foster a political resolution in Libya currently rely on the unity government, which faces an impending challenge from rival political and military factions. Libyan factions will become increasingly embroiled in internecine conflict in the coming months, drawing security forces away from the growing Salafi-jihadi threat in the center of the country. [Read Emily Estelle’s recent report, “A Strategy for Success in Libya.”]
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